It seems that sunspots in and of themselves aren't what makes the flux increase.
I've noted on spaceweather.com that we can still have suspots and the flux actually go down.
It seems that the suspots that are "crackling with "C" class flares"...are the ones where the flux goes up and propagation gets better...but even as someone who's been a ham more than 25 years, I'm embarassed that I don't know exactly how the sunspot dynamics works in relation to propagation.
Maybe others don't either.
ex-KA0NIU, ex-KA9SOX, now K5TEN (117 countries confirmed--Submitting for DXCC soon! WOOT!)
SWL: WDX9KJX And the "WDX9KJX Short Wave Monitoring Service" from 1973 to 1986
1st SW QSL: "Happy Station" Radio Nederland Wereldoemroep, Holland, 1974
2nd SW QSL: "The Voice of Nigeria" Lagos, 1974
3rd SW QSL: "Radio Moscow" USSRhttp://m3jzt.proboards82.com/index.cgi