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SunSpotWatch.com

Radio Propagation : Space Weather : Sunspot Cycle Information

a live reference resource site for solar and geomagnetic data and images

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Gain the on-air edge: This article explains how the ANTENNA is the key! -> Read this introduction to Antenna Modeling

STEREO 3D

X-ray Conditions (Flares) 5-min.

X-ray Conditions (Flares) 1-min.

Geomagnetic Conditions (Kp)

Satellite Environment Plot:

Main Propagation Menu:

+ Aurora Resources

How-To Articles:

- Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?
- De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling

Check out the ACE-HF propagation software - the latest is version 2.05. ACE-HF is propagation forecasting and modeling for Amateur Radio as well as for Shortwave radio Listening and general HF operation. This software is even used by the military and other clients around the world. This software is developed and maintained by the same engineers that keep VOACAP up-to-date. As a result, this software is the most accurate user interface integrated with VOACAP. CHECK IT OUT, TODAY. This software is the most accurate modeling software available, and is endorsed by NW7US. Read the details to find out why.

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- Main NW7US Page
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This website is kept alive by Tomas (NW7US), out of "spare change" (which there's not always enough of), and, by the kind, helpful people who visit this website. Would you like to help me keep this site running 24/7? If you are able to help me keep this website up and running, please: help me keep this site running for everyone... click on this donation button:

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Other links of interest:

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Comments? Please use the feedback form. I look forward to hearing your comments.

NW7US Update to CQ Magazine Last Minute Forecast
Updated: 07-May-2024 UTC

Day-to-Day Conditions Expected for May 2024

Propagation Index Days	(4)	(3)	(2)	(1)
Above Normal: No days	A	A	B	C
High Normal: No days	A	B	C	C-D
Low Normal: No days	B	C-B	C-D	D-E
Below Normal: No days	C	C-D	D-E	E
Disturbed: No days	C-D	D	E	E

Warnings/Alerts issued
in the last 24 hours, if any:
(Key: NOAA Scales)

[ live aurora display ]
[ auroral power maps ]

[ d-layer conditions ]

[ latest solar images 1 ]
[ latest solar images 2 ]
[ latest solar images 3 ]

[ active solar regions ]
[ current solar region image ]

[ What is a flare and its class? ]

Recent Space Environment Reports:

+ Reports of Solar & Geophysical Activity
+ Solar & Geophysical Activity Summaries

From the Space Environment Center:

Solar X-ray Flux

+ A 3 day plot of 5-minute solar X-ray flux values measured on the GOES 8 and 10 satellites.
+ A 6-hour 1-min Solar X-ray Flux plot

Satellite Environment Plot

[ Proton Flux ] [Electron Flux ]
[ GEOS Hp ] [ Estimated Kp ]

Additional Resources

+ SpaceW.com Aurora Network
+ D-Layer Absorption Conditions/Predictions
+ 160 Meter Propagation Forecast
+ Solar Physics Department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium, the official keepers of sunspot data.

Solar Activity Forecast
The Forecast of Solar Activity as well as Geomagnetic Activity

Probability of Flares and Proton Events
EVENT (Flare/Proton)	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs
M-class	90%	90%
X-class	50%	50%
Proton	25%	25%

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities
	Middle latitudes		High latitudes
	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs	0-24 hrs	24-48 hrs
Active	25%	25%	25%	25%
Minor Storm	25%	25%	25%	25%
Major-severe Storm	25%	25%	25%	25%

Solar Sunspot Cycle 24 Progress

Solar Cycle 24 Smoothed Sunspot Progress

Solar Cycle 24 Planetary A Index (Ap) Monthly Progress

Do you want the latest solar conditions sent to you as an RSS feed? Click:

You will need a newsreader for RSS/XML.

(Use http://hfradio.org/propsupport/prop.rss as your RSS channel url)

This page was rendered on 07-May-24 2330 UTC.
This page was first created as HFRadio.org in the mid 1990s, and morphed here in 1998, by Tomas David Hood (NW7US)

Current Sunspot Cycle 25 Activity ~ Space Weather ~ Shortwave Radio Propagation

[ How you can help this website ]

Sun Spots: 148 as of 05/06/2024 :: 10.7-cm Flux: 204 SFU
(SFU=Solar Flux Units)

Space Weather Overview Graphic from SWPC

30 Minutes of Dazzling Sun! Ultra-high Definition 4k View

An Intimate View of the Sun, Every Day of 2015 (Year 6 of SDO) UHD 4k

Watch Five Very Intense X-class X-ray Flares Erupt, Back-to-back!
(From the largest sunspot region in 20+ years...)

Check out the X2.7 X-ray Flare (May 5 2015) - 'Biggest' of 2015, so far

See highlights of the last five years of the Sun, as seen by SDO

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Latest Solar Images
Click on an image for full-sized view

D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) Global Map

Map, Above: Conditions in the D region of the ionosphere have a dramatic effect on high frequency (HF) communications and low frequency (LF) navigation systems. The global D Region Absorption Predictions (D-RAP) depicts the D region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes.

Note: At times, images may appear broken or missing, when SDO is working on the AIA/HMI instruments.

Planetary A-index (Ap): 8 | Planetary K-index (Kp):
Solar Wind: 503 km/s at 2.0 protons/cm3, Bz is 2.0 nT
(May 07, 2024 at 2317 UT)

X-ray Solar Flares:
6h hi [X4.5][0538Z 05/06] 24h hi [X4.5][0538Z 05/06]

Background X-ray Level, Last Six Days

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Check out the current Aurora Oval and activity.

What is the difference between the CB and Amateur Radio Services, in the USA? Here are some thoughts on the portrayal of the Amateur Radio Service by the Hit TV Series, NCIS, and a clarification of the difference between CB radio and ham radio.
(Skip to timecode 1:33 to bypass the introductory chat and talk about the headset microphone.)

Here is a video introduction to shortwave / HF amateur radio -- what is it that we amateur radio oprators listen to? If you have not yet been introduced to this world, this is a very basic introduction.

If you are using software utilities such as Ace-HF, that require a "smoothed" sunspot number
(Referred to as the SSN), or, the smoothed 10.7-cm Radio Flux Index,
use the following predicted values in this following table:

Predicted SMOOTHED Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values With Expected Ranges
YR/MO	Smoothed Sunspot Number Predicted/High/Low			Smoothed 10.7 cm Radio Flux Predicted/High/Low

To understand more about the Maximum Usable Frequencies, and related
science, please read the MUF Basics Page.

Global HF Propagation Conditions
Global HF Propagation Conditions for 0400Z on 05 May, 2021
High Latitude: Normal
Middle Latitude: Normal
Low Latitude: Normal

Geomagnetic Latitude Ranges:
High: 60-90 degrees
Middle: 20-60 degrees
Low: 0-20 degrees

At 0805 UTC, on 9 August 2011, a strong magnitude X6.9 X-ray flare -- the strongest yet in this current solar cycle (Cycle 24) -- erupted on the northwestern solar limb. Here is a HD Movie of the event:

Videos of Interest - Space Weather, Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO, and more... from the NW7US YouTube Channel. (Click on the small image to launch the video...)

Video: Voyager Finds Magnetic Foam at Solar Systems Edge

Video: Zoom View of Prominence Eruption and X-Ray Flare - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011

Video: X-Ray Flare, Coronal Mass Ejection, Proton Storm - M2.5 Magnitude - June 7 2011 (Close-up of the video, above)

Video: Stunning Close-up View of M3 X-Ray Flare 24 February 2011

Video: On How NCIS TV Show Maligned Amateur Radio Service (Full UHD Version)
What's the difference between CB and amateur (ham) radio?

Video: June 2011 20-meter (14-Mhz) JT65A Coverage Map of NW7US Radio Signal

The NW7US Current Sunspot and Geophysical Activity Report
The observations, prognastications, and comments by NW7US
NW7US is Tomas David Hood, Propagation and Space Weather Columnist
for CQ Communications

More about Background X-rays

The hard X-ray energy present from the wavelengths of 1 to 8 Angstroms provide the most effective ionizing energy throughout all of the ionospheric layers in our atmosphere. The GEOS satellites measure these wavelengths and the resulting measurements are reported as the "background X-ray level" throughout the day. A daily average is reported, as well.

Just like X-ray flares, the background hard X-ray level is measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), reported using the categories, A, B, C, M, and X. These letters are multipliers; each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9.

If one records the daily background X-ray levels for the course of a sunspot cycle, one would discover that the background X-ray levels remained at the A class level during the sunspot cycle minumum. During the rise and fall of a solar cycle, the background X-ray energy levels remained mostly in the B range. During peak solar cycle periods, the background energy reached the C and sometimes even M levels.

Armed with this information, can we discover any clues as to the current status of Sunspot Cycle 24? Below is a graph plotting the background hard X-ray energy reported by the GEOS satellites since the end of Sunspot Cycle 22. Clearly, we see a noticeable rise in Cycle 24 activity. We're seeing the energy mostly in the B level more often, supporting the view that Cycle 24 is alive and moving along toward an eventual sunspot cycle peak in several years.

Overall, the monthly average background 'hard' X-ray level is rising (as seen by the following plot), showing a change from deep solar cycle minimum. We are certainly in the rising phase of Sunspot Cycle 24. While it has been a slow up-tick over the last eighteen months, I expect to see a more rapid rise during mid to late 2011.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Covering the period: 29 April - 05 May 2024

Solar activity was at moderate to high levels. Moderate levels were observed on 29 Apr and 01-02 May. High levels were reached on 30 Apr, due in part to an M9.5/2b flare at 30/2346 UTC from Region 3654 (S07, L=134, class/area Fkc/550 on 30 Apr). Region 3654 was the largest and most complex spot group on 28 Apr-01 May, however it was in decay as it approached the SW limb on 01 May. The region produced a total of 11 M-class flares. On 30 Apr, Region 3663 (N26, L=037, class/area Fkc/580 on 05 May) emerged in the NE quadrant, followed by Region 3664 (S19, L=352, class/area Ekc/580 on 05 May) on 01 May. Both regions grew steadily over the following days. Region 3663 produced 17 M-class flares and 3 X-class flares while Region 3664 produced only 5 M-class flares. The three X-class flares included an X1.6/1b at 03/0222 UTC, an X1.3/1b at 05/0601 UTC, and an X1.2/1b at 05/1154 UTC. The X1.6 flare had associated Type II (959 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, a 550 sfu Tenflare and an associated CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 03/0248 UTC. Modelling of the event showed a potential glancing blow arriving around 05/1800 UTC. There were two further CME runs of note. Those included an eruption near N13W09 at 29/0909 UTC that displayed a westward flow across GOES 16 SUVI imagery. C2 imagery showed a CME off the NW limb at 29/1248 UTC that was modelled as a potential glancing blow on 03 May around 1500 UTC. Lastly, a CME that was associated with a C3.9 flare at 03/2037 UTC from a plage area in the NE quadrant. The flare had associated Type II (392 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions and a CME first observed in C3 imagery at 03/2218 UTC. Analysis showed a potential glancing blow on 09 May. Other eruptive events associated with radio signatures were observed, but did not produce ejecta determined to be on the Sun-Earth line.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout.

Solar wind parameters began the period under mild positive polarity CH HSS influence solar wind speed was mostly in the 450-500 km/s range and total field around 2-4 nT. Solar wind speed began to diminish to nominal levels on 30 Apr. After 30/1130 UTC, the first of three CMEs were observed. Total field increased to near 14 nT while the Bz component rotated from -9 nT to +13 nT. Solar wind speed continued to decrease to near 350 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet levels on 29 Apr, followed by quiet to active levels on 30 Apr-01 May. On 02 May, a shock arrival was observed at 02/1317 UTC, indicating the arrival of the second CME. This CME was possibly the one that left the Sun on 29 Apr. The IMF increased to approximately 21 nT and the Bz component shifted southward to -19 nT. Solar wind speed increased initially to near 450 km/s and later to near 510 km/s on 03 May. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to G3 (Strong) storm levels on 02 May and quiet to active levels on 03 May. By early on 03 May, the IMF had decreased to nominal levels with solar wind speed slowly returning to background conditions. Nominal conditions returned on 04 May and through the midday on 05 May. Around 05/1500 UTC, another enhancement was observed in the IMF, likely the arrival of the 03 May CME. Total field strength increased gradually to 14 nT while the Bz component reached a southward deflection of -12 nT. Solar wind speed increased to near 380 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to active levels late on 05 May.

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number - The monthly mean sunspot number (blue) and 13-month smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last five cycles. You can see that this current cycle, Cycle 24, is a weak cycle, compared to the last few.

(Click to see actual size)

Monthly and smoothed sunspot number chart

Daily and monthly sunspot number (last 13 years)

Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number:

SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.

CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).

(Click to see actual size)

What is 'Space Weather'? Click on these two information slides to view them in full size:

View of numbered sunspot regions and plages (if any)
Source: http://www.solarmonitor.org/.
(Click for large view)

Active sunspot regions, and plages, identified by SIDC

SIDC Solar Disc with active regions and plages

STEREO IMAGES

What is coming

Current View

What was...

Real Time Solor Wind and Aurora:

On 2024 May 07 2327Z: Bz: 1.9 nT
Bx: -1.4 nT | By: 3.3 nT | Total: 4.1 nT
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on // : UTC
Aurora Activity Level was at UTC
visit noaa for latest.

This is a video of the simulation from May 27-28, 2011, showing
the Geomagnetic disturbance caused by the solar wind

Space Weather and Propagation Forecast
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
and the Space Weather Prediction Center

Three Day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
(as of 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014)

Solar Forecast:

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

Geomagnetic Forecast:

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 May - 01 June 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels (R1-R3/Minor-Strong) through 12 May as Regions 3663 and 3664 rotate across the visible disk. Low to moderate levels are expected on 12 May-01 Jun.

There is a chance for S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storm levels on 06-13 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 06 May-01 Jun.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 06 May due to persistent CME influence. The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 07-09 May, 12-14 May, 23-25 May, 27-28 May, and 31 May-01 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Real-time foF2 map from IPS (Ionospheric Prediction Service), Australian Space Weather Agency

Space Weather + Ham Radio Resources

Click on image to
view larger versions

The following images
are from SOHO

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Check out this amazing NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) video
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Additional Views of the Sun

Be sure to check the Date shown in each photo - is it today's date?
(click to enlarge)

Current Numbered Sunspots / MDI Magnetogram

Check out these articles:

HOW-TO: How do you make your HF ham station work more efficiently? The ANTENNA is the key! - introduction to Antenna Modeling
HOW-TO: Is HF Propagation Reciprocal?
HOW-TO: De-mystifying HF Radio Propagation and Modeling
REVIEW: An Amateur Radio Operator's Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05
REVIEW: A Shortwave Listening (SWLing) Review of ACE-HF PRO version 2.05
HOW-TO: Noise and Radio Signal Effectiveness; Modeling in ACE-HF Pro version 2.05

Data and images courtesy of IPS Australia, NOAA, NASA, SWPC, SIDC

Layout, analysis, commentary, and certain forecasts and content is
Copyright, 2022, Tomas David Hood (NW7US), all rights reserved.
No part, except for the space weather 'banners', may be copied without express permission.

Last Update: November 21, 2022

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SunSpotWatch.com

Radio Propagation : Space Weather : Sunspot Cycle Information

Current Sunspot Cycle 25 Activity ~ Space Weather ~ Shortwave Radio Propagation